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Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Think about this...

Malaysia 27th ranking in the world.
Petrol Price: RM 2.90 

Qatar the 22nd ranking in the world.
Petrol Price : RM 0.75

Oman the 28th ranking in the world.
Petrol Price: RM1.00

Egypt @ Mesir the 29th ranking in the world
Petrol Price: RM 1.06

Iran the 8th ranking in the world
Petrol Price: RM 0.35

Is it really related with subsidy or what?

Thursday, May 5, 2011

Oil falls below $109 on US economy concerns (update)

SINGAPORE (AP) - Oil prices fell below $109 a barrel Thursday in Asia, extending a week-long sell-off on investor concern that slowing U.S. economic growth will undermine crude demand.

Benchmark crude for June delivery was down 50 cents at $108.74 a barrel at midday Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract lost $1.81 to settle at $109.24 on Wednesday. In London, Brent crude for June delivery was down 30 cents to $120.89 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange. Crude has fallen from a 2 1/2-year high above $114 late last week as traders eye signs U.S economic growth is faltering.

The Institute for Supply Management said Wednesday its service sector index rose at the slowest pace in eight months in April, while private payroll processor ADP reported that 179,000 new private sector jobs were added in April, far fewer than economists expected.

The government is scheduled to announce April non-farm payroll numbers Friday. "Employment seems unlikely to increase by as much as it needs to for sustainable economic growth," Cameron Hanover said in a report. "The major assets that have been the focus of investor buying for so long have lost some luster."

Fighting between rebels and forces loyal to Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi, which has shut down almost all of the country's 1.6 million barrels a day of crude output, has ground to a stalemate in recent weeks. A resolution of the conflict and resumption of oil production would likely trigger a sharp drop in crude prices, analysts said.

"The ongoing civil war in Libya and unrest elsewhere in the Middle East has added a risk premium of around $30 to a barrel of crude," Capital Economics said in a report. "We expect the risk premium to fade as and when the Libyan crisis eases, helping to drag prices back within OPEC's $70 to $90 range by year-end."
In other Nymex trading in June contracts, heating oil fell 0.3 cent to $3.14 a gallon and gasoline dropped 1.2 cents to $3.31 a gallon. Natural gas futures were down 2.1 cents at $4.56 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Earlier report

Oil price falls on supply increase and weak demand

NEW YORK: Oil dropped below US$110 per barrel Wednesday after a government report showed that supplies of petroleum products are growing as demand weakens in the U.S.
Industry reports on the job market and the service sector also raised concerns about the health of the U.S. economy.

Benchmark crude for June delivery lost $1.81 to settle at $109.24 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent gave up $1.26 to settle at $121.19 per barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.
Prices fell shortly after the Energy Information Administration said that oil supplies increased by 3.4 million barrels last week - twice as much as energy analysts expected. The government also reported that gasoline demand averaged 9.1 million barrels per day, down almost 2 percent from a year ago.

Crude has been climbing over the past few months as unrest in North Africa and the Middle East raised concerns about oil supplies and a weaker U.S. dollar made crude cheaper for investors holding foreign money. Still, economists warned that higher energy prices were taking a toll on the economy, and recent government and industry surveys suggest that American drivers are buying less fuel.

In its weekly report, MasterCard SpendingPulse said the four-week average of gasoline purchases in the U.S. dropped for the sixth consecutive week, compared with a year ago. EIA said the four-week average of wholesale gasoline demand also dropped for the sixth straight week.

So far the drop in consumption hasn't kept pump prices from rising. Gasoline has increased for 43 days straight, hitting a national average of $3.982 per gallon (3.79 liters) on Wednesday, according to AAA, Wright Express and Oil Price Information Service. Pump prices have risen 91 cents per gallon since the beginning of the year. A gallon of regular now costs more than $4 in 13 states and Washington, D.C.
Lackluster economic news also helped push oil prices down Wednesday. The Institute for Supply Management said its service sector index rose at the slowest pace in 8 months in April, as many companies expressed concerns about higher food and gas prices. Private payroll processor ADP also raised worries about the health of the jobs market when it reported that 179,000 new private sector jobs were added in April, far fewer than economists expected.

In other Nymex trading for June contracts, heating oil lost 4.78 cents to settle at $3.143 per gallon and gasoline futures fell less than a penny to settle at $3.3225 per gallon. Natural gas gave up 9.4 cents to settle at $4.644 per 1,000 cubic feet (28.32 cubic meters). - AP

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Recent Tsunami in Japan to Slow Q2 Vehicle Sales in M'sia

PETALING JAYA: Vehicle sales in the second quarter could slow down due to supply constraints following the earthquake in Japan.

“In the second quarter (Q2), the economic sentiment in Malaysia is likely to remain positive. However, we expect supply side constraints due to the unfortunate situation in Japan,” said Frost & Sullivan partner and automotive and transportation practice head for Asia-Pacific, Kavan Mukhtyar.

“ Japanese-linked companies are expected to slow down production and companies that have lower dependence on Japanese supplies could benefit from this situation. “Some key models that are supposed to be launched in Q2 will be delayed,” he said. This could result in customers postponing their purchase decisions. These factors could slow down new vehicle registration in Q2, 2011. Total vehicle sales surged by 12.7% to 63,265 units in March 2011 from 56,139 units a year earlier due to a rush for deliveries and invoicing by companies that have their financial year ending in March, the Malaysian Automotive Association said last month.
Year-to-date (YTD) March 2011 sales volume increased by 7.5% over the same period last year, up from 4.3% as at YTD February 2011. The MAA said sales volume for April would moderate and was expected to be lower than March. OSK Research auto analyst Ahmad Maghfur Usman in his recent report concurred, saying that the earthquake would create a shortage of vehicles in Malaysia despite the buoyant demand over the first quarter (Q1).

“Auto companies' earnings are likely to be hit in Q2 and the third quarter (Q3) as poor economic efficiency and spiralling raw material prices pinch margins.” Kavan said while Q1 showed strong positive growth, Q2 is expected to see a marginal decline. “From a demand stand point the driving factors will remain positive. Economy (gross domestic product) is expected to grow at a healthy pace in upwards of 5%. There could be some inflationary pressures due to oil price increase.
“However interest rate may only increase marginally. By and large the demand side factors are positive,” he said.

Kavan added that the key challenge going forward was the supply side constraints as a result of the model launch delays due to the earthquake. UMW Toyota Motor Sdn Bhd said there could be some disruptions in parts supplies from Japan. Honda Malaysia Sdn Bhd in its statement early last month said it was “monitoring closely” the situation on the supply of parts. Proton Holdings Bhd was experiencing difficulties in getting some small components for its Inspira model, due to suppliers affected by the Japanese tsunami disaster.
Perusahaan Otomobil Kedua Sdn Bhd (Perodua) said its operations were affected by the earthquake and tsunami.

Justice Has Been Done, Says Obama

This video frame grab obtained from ABC News  showing the interior of the mansion where Osama Bin Laden was killed on Sunday. β€” Reuters picture

This video frame grab obtained from ABC News showing the interior of the mansion where Osama Bin Laden was killed on Sunday. — Reuters picture















WASHINGTON: Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden was killed in a firefight with American forces in Pakistan on Sunday, President Barack Obama announced, ending a nearly 10-year worldwide hunt for the mastermind of the Sept 11 terror attacks. "Justice has been done," Obama said in a hastily called, late-night White House speech revealing the death of the elusive head of the militant group behind a series of bloody attacks in cities across the world.

His death, confirmed by officials in Pakistan, was a huge symbolic blow to al-Qaeda, which has been beaten back but is still a threat in many countries.

It prompted jubilant flag-waving celebrations here and in New York. It was the biggest national security victory for Obama since he took office in early 2009 and could give him a political boost as he seeks re-election in 2012. Obama may now find it easier to wind down the nearly decade-old war in Afghanistan, begun after the Sept 11, 2001, attacks on New York and Washington that killed nearly 3,000.

But the operation could complicate relations with Pakistan, already frayed over United States drone strikes in the west of the country and the jailing of a CIA contractor accused of killing two Pakistani men. Obama said US forces led a targeted operation that killed Osama in a compound in Abbotabad, north of Islamabad. No Americans were killed in the operation and they took care to avoid civilian casualties, he said.

A senior administration official said it was believed that three adults, besides Osama, were killed, including an adult son of Osama. Osama's death triggered a travel alert for Americans worldwide, the US State Department said, warning of the potential for anti-American violence. Thousands of people gathered outside the White House, waving American flags, cheering and chanting "USA, USA, USA".

Similar celebrations erupted in New York's Ground Zero, site of the World Trade Center twin towers felled by hijacked airplanes. Many Americans had given up hope of ever finding Osama after he vanished in the mountains of Afghanistan in late 2001.

Intelligence that originated last August provided the clues that eventually led to Osama's trail, the president said. A US official said Obama gave the final order to pursue the operation last Friday morning. "The US has conducted an operation that killed Osama bin Laden, the leader of al-Qaeda and a terrorist who is responsible for the murder of thousands of men, women and children," Obama said.

Former president George W. Bush, who vowed to bring Osama to justice "dead or alive" but never did, called the operation a "momentous achievement" after Obama called him with the news. Martin Indyk, a former US assistant secretary of state for near eastern affairs, described Osama's death as "a body blow" to al-Qaeda at a time when its ideology was already being undercut by the popular revolutions in the Arab world.

Other experts were more cautious. "It changes little in terms of on-the-ground realities -- by the time of his death, Osama was not delivering operational or tactical orders to the numerous al-Qaeda affiliates across the world," said Rick Nelson of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Statements of appreciation poured in from both sides of Washington's often divided political divide. Republican Senator John McCain declared, "I am overjoyed that we finally got the world's top terrorist". Said former president Bill Clinton: "I congratulate the president, the national security team and the members of our armed forces on bringing Osama bin Laden to justice after more than a decade of murderous al-Qaeda attacks."

Having the body may help convince any doubters that Osama is really dead. However, a US official said Osama had been buried at sea.

Finding a country willing to accept the remains of the world's most wanted terrorist would have been difficult, the official said. So the US decided to bury him at sea.

"We wanted to avoid a situation where it would become a shrine," another official said. -- Agencies

Osama is Dead

PETALING JAYA: Security forces around the world raised their level of vigilance after the killing of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in a military operation by the United States in Pakistan.




Osama was bombed


International police agency Interpol issued a global alert to “a heightened terror risk from al-Qaeda affiliated or inspired terrorists” even as Osama's supporters took to the Internet to “vow revenge”. Several countries, including the US, Britain and Japan, also announced security alerts for their nationals, embassies and bases.

In Malaysia, police announced the stepping up of security measures at important locations. The US Embassy here warned Americans to be on the look-out but gave the assurance that its operations would continue as normal despite the warning.

In other developments:
> Celebrations erupted in US, especially at the White House and Ground Zero in New York, as news broke;
> Experts warn that despite Osama's death, terrorism would continue until the root causes have been addressed.

Monday, May 2, 2011

Iskandar to Attract RM73bil

JOHOR BAHRU: Iskandar Malaysia aims to attract RM73bil new investments to the country's first economic growth corridor starting from January 2011 until December 2015.

Iskandar Regional Development Authority (Irda) chief executive officer Ismail Ibrahim said although it was getting more challenging to attract new investments, the figure was achievable.
He said that by December last year, Iskandar Malaysia had attracted RM69.48bil, surpassing the RM47bil target for 2010 from its inception on Nov 4, 2006.Ismail added that RM3.76bil new investment was recorded in the first quarter of the year, bringing the total committed investments to RM73.24bil since 2006.

Ismail Ibrahim (second from right) briefing journalists on Iskandar Malaysia’s development at Irda headquarters in Danga Bay, Johor Bahru
 
Of the total RM73.24bil, RM43.29mil or 59% are from local investors and RM29.95% or 41% are from foreign investors, of which 41% of the total committed investments have been spent to date. The manufacturing sector contributed RM28.25bil, with RM24.26bil from properties, RM6.28bil from the Government, RM2.90bil from utilities, RM1.47bil from tourism, while RM10.08bil from others. “The targets will be reviewed regularly in view of the ever-changing global economic and investment climate. There are no hard and fast rules for us,'' he said at a media briefing for journalists from Kuala Lumpur on the progress of Iskandar Malaysia on Saturday.

He said Iskandar Malaysia would be focusing on potential investors from Asean, China, India, Japan and South Korea apart from Europe and the Middle East which were the main targets during its early inception.
Ismail said Iskandar Malaysia would be entering its fifth year in November, and the latest investment figure reflected the serious commitments and efforts undertaken by all stakeholders. Ismail stressed that Iskandar Malaysia would focus on acquiring quality investments and not numbers in line with the aspiration for high-income economy. He said the investments should further enhance and complement the five existing economic clusters under its Comprehensive Development Plan (CDP) to transform Iskandar Malaysia into an international metropolis by 2025.

The five are electrical and electronics, petrochemical and olechemcial, food and agro-processing, logistics and related services, tourism, health services, educational services, financial services and ICT and creative industries. “For instance, are we going to continue manufacturing parts and components only or are we migrating into research and development activities,'' said Ismail. He said the obvious choice would be to move up the value-chain as the country's manufacturing sector could no longer remain labour-intensive. Ismail said the manufacturing sector in Iskandar Malaysia was moving into the R&D and high-technology activities with the setting up of the BioXCell biotechnology park in Nusajaya and Senai Hi-Tech Park. He said the two projects had received several capital-intensive investments from foreign investors involved in the biotechnology R&D and renewable energy sectors from India, China, France and South Korea. Ismail said with the improvement of bilateral ties between Malaysia and Singapore, many Singapore-based small and medium enterprises (SMEs) have expressed interest to relocate to Iskandar Malaysia. He said three areas in Senai, Pasir Gudang and Gelang had been identified for the setting up of the dedicated industrial parks for the local and foreign SMEs.

“We have received queries from companies operating in the Ring of Fire zone which plan to relocate their operations to Iskandar Malaysia in view of frequent earthquakes in their region,'' said Ismail. He said Irda and other stakeholders would continue to work hard in promoting Iskandar Malaysia to the world and to correct the misperception that Iskandar Malaysia was only about Nusajaya. Ismail said the 9.712.45ha Nusajaya was one of the five flagship development zones in Iskandar Malaysia the other zones were the Johor Baru City Centre, Western Gate Development Zone, Eastern Gate Development Zone and Senai-Kulai. “Located in the southernmost part of Johor, spanning over 2,217 sq km and three times bigger than Singapore, Iskandar Malaysia offers good prospects and investment opportunities for all,'' said Ismail.

Irda and the Government-backed investment holding company Iskandar Investment Bhd (IIB) are the two bodies tasked to promote and develop Iskandar Malaysia. Irda is the regulatory body mandated to plan, promote and facilitate the development of Iskandar Malaysia and IIB to drive commercial initiatives within Iskandar Malaysia via joint ventures or contribution of land.

Chong Wei Defeats Gade to Win Maiden India Open

NEW DELHI, May 1 (Bernama): World No 1 Datuk Lee Chong Wei pulled off a crucial win against Danish veteran Peter Hoeg Gade in an entertaining India Open Super Series finals at the Siri Fort Sports Complex today.



Though the Malaysian won the first set 12-21, the stubborn Danish forced him to slog in the remaining two sets before surrendering the title, which the former had been aiming for some time. "It was a tough game. I lost focus in the second set. At 34, Peter is still a good player, he never gives up until the end. "This stadium is lucky (brings luck), hope I will come back to India to play in the next super series," Chong Wei told the media at the same venue where he had won two gold medals at the 2010 Delhi Commonwealth Games last October.

In the hour-long tussle, he combined his elegant stroke plays, powerful smashes and mental strength to contain Gade, who had lost 10 times in previous 11 ties against the Malaysian ace. Gade quite easily grabbed the second set 21-12 as an out-of-focus Chong Wei slackened and lost balance, especially after the Dane dominated from 8-11 onwards. But the stoical Malaysian quickly turned around the third set to his advantage, ending the match at 21-15 and collected his third super series titles this year, and shared the US$200,000 (RM600,000) prize money.

"I played against the best player in the world. It is all about confidence and when he (Chong Wei) is confident, he is unbeatable. "I had a chance to win after winning the second set, I gave everything but he was unbeatable today," said the world sixth-ranked Gade.

Sunday, May 1, 2011

The big picture on skilled labour market

WILL the global downturn and fragile economies of the United States and UK prompt Malaysian talents to return, or attract talents from the West? RAM Rating Services Bhd looks at the situation in terms of two main cohorts. Chief economist Dr Yeah Kim Leng explains: “We have the fresh graduates with no experience and the experienced workers. If the job market is sluggish in industrialised countries, it would be more difficult for lower skilled Malaysians to obtain employment as there may be more competition for these vacancies. “We would expect the more experienced and skilled cohort to have some leverage compared to the inexperienced graduates. Thus, it may prompt a return of this group. However, some may decide to further their studies and stay on in these countries, to ride out the sluggish employment situation and/or better their job prospects.”
Click on image for actual size.
 
Yeah says the report reiterates a long-standing observation that we not only have not optimised the country's human resources to achieve faster growth, but that its rich human capital base has been eroded by a pick-up in talent outflow.

“Additionally, the brain drain not only has not been offset by an equivalent intake but we are also experiencing a decline in skilled expatriate population, thereby exacerbating the country's already narrow skill base.” Yeah was commenting on The World Bank's Malaysia Economic Monitor: Brain Drain. He says the comprehensive analysis of Malaysia's brain drain situation lends credence to the importance of the New Economic Model's (NEM) policy and strategic initiatives.

But besides targeted measures such as the setting up of Talent Corp, the recently announced 15% tax rate and other incentives, it reaffirms the need for a comprehensive solution to address the underlying causes such as misaligned economic incentives and social disincentives as highlighted in the NEM. “While measures and incentive could tip the decisions in Malaysia's favour, as mentioned in the World Bank report, they are complementary to the need to address productivity and inclusiveness challenges. Addressing the fundamental issues of productivity and inclusiveness will help to mitigate the negative effects of brain drain while accentuating the positive spillovers from the Malaysian diaspora,” he says.

Can Malaysia reform fast enough to meet challenges?

LET'S face it. The fact that talented professionals and even less-skilled Malaysians have left (and leaving) for better economic prospects and a less ethnically- and religiously-polarised environment over the past three decades or more is not new.

After all, who among Malaysians do not have family members and friends working and living abroad?
Brain drain and migration in general is a controversial and complex topic in this country, largely due to the ethnic overtones - a lot more non-bumiputras than bumiputras have left. Even so, in recent years, talented bumiputras have also become part of the million-strong Malaysian diaspora.
Ong Kian Ming says targeted measures such as those suggested by Talent Corp may not be sufficient to attract skilled Malaysians home.
_____________________________
 
In years past, the human capital flight was something that was tacitly acknowledged by the Government. That has now been made known - very clearly - backed by volumes of data by the World Bank in its fourth edition of the Malaysia Economic Monitor.

That human capital flight is not new to Malaysia is acknowledged by the Washington DC-based international financial institution. But what is troubling is the observation by Bangkok-based senior economist Philip Schellekens and team, which produced the report, of the difficulty in implementing the more comprehensive and in-depth reforms under the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) namely those under the New Economic Model (NEM) announced by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak last year.

The NEM outlines eight strategic reform initiatives aimed at greater private initiative, better skills, more competition, a leaner public sector, pro-growth affirmative action, a better knowledge base and infrastructure, the selective promotion of sectors, and environmental as well as fiscal sustainability.

According to the report, the project-based initiatives of the ETP as represented by the National Key Economic Areas (NKEAs) have “demonstrated notable progress” but there is skepticism about the impact of the cross-cutting reform announcements under the NEM. The report recommends that the NEM cross-cutting reforms be accelerated despite the apparent difficulty in implementing such reforms.

It notes that to be successful, the NEM route will require a comprehensive overhaul of policy frameworks, where success may show itself only after a period of many years of steady implementation for example, there are few quick wins in strengthening the country's education system.

Schellekens says in a recent interview that sentiment is definitely warming up to Malaysia going from recent discussions that the World Bank team had with foreign investors. “At the same time, almost all the investors that we talked to have not really accounted for the NEM in their medium-term forecasts as they're skeptical,” he adds. Schellekens says investors feel that the Government will not really tackle the underlying cross-cutting issues as quickly and comprehensively as it is keen on boosting investment growth through the NKEA projects.

“That's the perception issue. It's partly unjustified because initiatives are being formulated but there's a sequencing problem. NKEA projects are moving quicker while the NEM reforms are moving slower. That's affecting sentiment,” he says.

Schellekens says the World Bank has had the benefit of working with the Government and has seen a number of positive developments (including those under the Government Transformation Programme, which together with the ETP form part of the comprehensive reform agenda) which are not reflected in the perceptions of investors.

Different picture
“We told the Prime Minister of this, that investment bankers are not going to tell you the truth when they come here because they rely on you for the business; so they're not going to be bearish on Malaysia. But when we talk to them, we've a different picture,” he says.

Meanwhile, underscoring the importance of the NEM reform, UCSI political analyst and lecturer Dr Ong Kian Ming says in an email reply that the surveys of those who have left clearly show that only sincere structural changes including a shift away from an ethnic-based to a needs-based policy of affirmative action and “evidence of fundamental and positive changes in the government” can entice them to return.
“This is not surprising since one presumes that these individuals do not return to Malaysia just for the short term but do so because they think that this country is the right place to bring up their children and for their children to have suitable economic opportunities,” he says.

Ong adds that it also shows that targeted measures such as those suggested by Talent Corp may not be sufficient to attract skilled Malaysians home or minimise their rate of leaving the country. He observes that the Government needs a “Singapore” policy since the city-state absorbed 57% of the diaspora and 54% of the brain drain as at 2010. “Without addressing the issues and concerns of the Malaysians who have moved, it will be challenging to stem the brain drain and to attract skilled talent to return to Malaysia,” Ong says.
As the World Bank report observes: To support the acceleration of reform implementation, policymakers could consider reprioritising the reform agenda, refocusing on the critical binding constraints to growth first and attempting to overdeliver on these. The good news is that, in the face of Malaysia's vast unrealised potential, the critical bottlenecks also present significant opportunities to accelerate growth. In this respect concrete policy actions that support productivity and inclusiveness should attract first priority.
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